woensdag 9 februari 2011

How sustainable is the 'German model'? Isn't an export-oriented economy alsways to some extent 'other-directed'? The French Coface analyzes regularly the risk per country (see: ). If we look at the strengths and weaknesses of Germany, the industrial base is indeed one of the strong points. But the dominant part of the automobile industry - both as far as production and export are concerned - is seen as a weakness. Will the strengths or the weaknesses prevail in future?
Economists cannot predict (as we have learned the hard way) which does not deter them however from eagerly extrapolating the 'recovery' curve glossing over the losses incurred during the height of the crisis.

Making things (better) German style is at best a temporary route map to be further developed in two directions:
- to sustainit, one needs to stimulate innovation
- and Europe must leave the slow lane of becoming the greater Switzerland of the 21st century (Stevens)

The German model portrays the macroeconomic landscape of the country which is in a certain sense only an abstraction: the real economy rather happens in cities and regions and, above all, in individual companies. Hence for a better understanding it is necessary to zoom in on those lower levels.

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